Updated: Charlie Kindel has debunked my theory and stated that WHS V1 will not be based on Longhorn Server.
Since I like making the WHS team squirm, I’m going to make a prediction. The fun thing about predictions is that when you get them right, you can call attention to them and point out your brilliance. When you get them wrong, you can just let the quietly fade into history.
I predict that Windows Home Server will be based on Longhorn Server when it’s released.
My reasons are few and far between, but here’s my basis for this speculation:
- The release timeframe for both WHS and Longhorn Server appears to be “Second Half 2007”. Releasing a product based on Server 2003 in the shadow of the Longhorn Server release might take away from the excitement around WHS.
- In the Channel9 video on WHS, Rory asked Charlie whether they had forked from Server 2003. Charlie indicated that they hadn’t forked, and I think he said something about how the way that Windows Server is built allowed them to not fork. The fact that this appears to be a modular addition to Windows Server should mean that it should play nice with Longhorn Server.
- There have been subtle hints about the possibility of clustering WHS boxes. Changes in Longhorn Server enhance the clustering capability. Reading through the Longhorn Server Highlights I kept thinking “That feature would be useful to WHS”.
That’s pretty much it. Anything past that can just be chalked up to wild speculation on my part.